Will Trump's Iran sanctions actually work this time?

He says the real test is China, which has cut its Iranian oil imports from roughly 1.5 mil to 500,000 barrels a day since the war began, diversifying toward Brazil, Iraq and Russia, though it's unclear if that shift will last.

Trump has sanctioned 60 entities but not yet banks. Pfeifle warns that success requires tracking money as quickly as Iran and China move it through crypto, shell companies, and shadow banks, since sanctioning one channel just pushes funds elsewhere.

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